Realized P&L over time
After modeled feesFollowUnrealized value is shown separately above.
RESEARCH DESK / KALSHI
See the signal.
Measure the result.
Live observations. Independent virtual strategies. Every cost and missed fill matters.
Checking snapshot
Loading recorded data…
PAPER COPY SOURCES
Checking selected whales…
Selected for new capital-paper copies, subject to cash, loss, liquidity and freshness limits. Real-money copying is disabled.
Current paper account; starting balance shown below. All returns include modeled fees. Earlier experiments are archived; no real money is being traded.
Evidence, not conviction
Fresh experiment only · copied targets counted once
Aim for at least 48 hours and 100 target windows. Coverage, missing data and quality flags still matter.
Different time windows are different contracts. This is a directional experiment, not an exact copy.
Our copy-success whale leaderboard
Preserved whale prediction historyLoading source inventory…
New copies require strictly more than 50% officially resolved target accuracy. Whales at or below 50%, and whales with no resolved results, remain observation-only for recovery. The initial 100% label for untested sources is not an earned win rate. Source accuracy combines copied targets and later observation-only targets, counted once per whale and contract. Account accuracy above counts actual paper copies only. Fees remain included in returns and profitable-exit rates; observations create no fills or P&L. Existing cash, depth, freshness and risk limits still apply.
| Whale | Target accuracy · copies + observations | Copy status | Correct | Incorrect | Resolved trades | Rank | Profitable exits after modeled fees | Realized P&L after modeled fees | Coverage |
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Candidate whalesLoading candidates…
The earlier reference studies are archived. Other categories remain observation-only until contract matching is verified. The fresh experiment applies the strictly-above-50% threshold to fourteen pinned crypto sources; paused sources remain observed for recovery. Other categories remain observation-only. Fresh source data and execution/risk checks still apply. Leaderboard profits alone do not establish copying profitability.
| Whale / wallet | Recorded signals | Research contexts | Identity | Stage |
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All-market coverageLoading category research…
| Kalshi category | Catalogued market families | Observed | Copy status |
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Family catalogues are not active contracts or verified matches. Sports, weather and other categories await contract-rule verification and initial mapping approval. The existing crypto directional paper experiment continues separately.
Leaderboard discoveryLoading scan…
Current paper positions
Selected fee scenario| Strategy / market | Side | Qty | Entry cost after modeled fees | Net liquidation after fees | Exit due | Quality |
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A software stop retains positions. This dashboard has no order, funding or execution controls.
Paper execution historyExpand / collapse · latest 100 fills
Buys and exits are separate rows. P&L is shown after modeled fees and follows the five-minute exit policy. “Hold to expiry” is a separate hypothetical result from official resolution, minus the recorded entry price, including modeled fees; it never changes paper cash. Pending is not a loss or zero return.
| Time / strategy | Market / side | Action / qty | Gross / fee | P&L after modeled fees | Official expiry | Hold to expiry after modeled fees |
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Kalshi order-flow researchCollecting evidence
Same-contract anonymous aggressor exposure. YES-directed volume includes buying YES or selling NO; NO-directed volume includes buying NO or selling YES. These are not counts of people or opening positions. Overlapping 60-second windows are not independent trades. Later midquote changes are diagnostics, not executable returns or paper P&L. No flow-strategy fills are enabled.
| Observed | Exact Kalshi contract | Quality | YES-directed contracts | NO-directed contracts | Imbalance |
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Whale activityExpand / collapse · latest 50 observations
Latest observed public trades · source activity is not our execution
| Observed / trader | Source market | Action / outcome | Source price | Source size | Evidence |
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